Institutional Rate-of-Change (RoC) Framework
Current Aggregate Signal
QUAD 3
Stagflation (Growth ↓ | Inflation ↑)
Inflation (RoC) →
| Metric Name | Current Print | Previous Print | Base (1 Yr Ago) | RoC Signal | Frequency |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Growth Indicators (Decelerating) | |||||
| Retail Sales (YoY) | 1.5% | 2.1% | 3.0% | ↓ Decel | Monthly |
| Nonfarm Payrolls (MoM) | 175K | 220K | 250K | ↓ Decel | Monthly |
| Initial Jobless Claims | 245K | 230K | 210K | ↓ Decel (Inv) | Weekly |
| NAHB Housing Index | 45 | 48 | 52 | ↓ Decel | Monthly |
| ▸ Inflation Indicators (Accelerating) | |||||
| Headline CPI (YoY) | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.9% | ↑ Accel | Monthly |
| Core PCE (YoY) | 2.9% | 2.8% | 4.6% | ↑ Accel | Monthly |
| WTI Crude Oil | $86.50 | $81.20 | $75.00 | ↑ Accel | Daily |
| Copper (HG1) | $4.50 | $4.10 | $3.85 | ↑ Accel | Daily |
| Avg Hourly Earnings (YoY) | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.4% | ↑ Accel | Monthly |
| ▸ Policy & Liquidity (Tightening) | |||||
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | 106.50 | 105.10 | 101.80 | ↑ Accel | Daily |
| High Yield OAS Spread | 3.80% | 3.50% | 4.20% | ↑ Accel (Risk) | Daily |
| 10Y–2Y Yield Curve | −0.35% | −0.42% | −0.60% | ↑ Steepening | Daily |
* Inverse indicators (Jobless Claims, HY Spreads): a higher absolute reading worsens economic conditions and contributes a Growth-Decelerating (red) vote to the aggregate signal.